Little Golden Man

I love Oscar season. It’s the cinephile’s Super Bowl. It showcases the best and brightest actors, directors, producers, and writers who give us joy on the big silver stippled screen. Granted, they are a stuffy and pretentious, but they’re an institution that’s older than my grandfather and he’s 70… So, yeah, think about that.

All right, enough of the boring introduction and boring old cliches, let’s get down to brass tacks (see what I did there?): The Oscar Predictions.

I do my Oscar pool a little differently because I want to cover all bases regarding the most important night ever. I lost last year, but this year I’m certain I can win the majority.

I have three categories: Who I Want to Win, Who Should Win, and Who’s Going to Win. I discovered over the years that my personal tastes vastly differ from the majority, but there will always be movies that should’ve won over what the Academy voters’ selection.

So, with the Big Five (Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress) I gave my predictions with reasons. The other categories I’ve given my predictions and hopes. I can only do so much, let alone talk about movies before I run out of analogies and start to pace the room for one more good idea.

Also, I left out some of the categories I know don’t know a lot about. Namely the documentaries, makeup and hairstyling, sound editing and mixing, short films live action, film editing, and foreign language films because I’ve never gotten those right, and don’t want the reminder that I don’t know what I’m doing.

  • Best Picture
    • Amour Margaret Menegoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka and Michael Katz, Producers
    • Argo Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
    • Beasts of the Southern Wild Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
    • Django Unchained Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
    • Les Misérables Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
    • Life of Pi Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
    • Lincoln Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
    • Silver Linings Playbook Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
    • Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers

Who I Want to Win: Tie: Django Unchained/Silver Linings Playbook

I love them both equally but for different reasons. Silver Linings Playbook is the one of the rom-coms I’ve ever seen without being forced to go and probably one of those few that I enjoyed the message of because it applies to everyday life. It’s nothing outlandish or ridiculous, it’s just an honest story of people coping with change. That’s a very watered down summary, but accurate. As for Django Unchained, I love Tarantino films and this is right up there with Inglourious Basterds. It’s long with false endings, but I thoroughly enjoyed Christoph Waltz’s performance and I really want a sequel. Django Unchained 2: The Reckoning.

Who Should Win: Les Miserables

As a fan favorite and film contender, Les Miserables as made the world of musicals and Broadway more accessible and entrancing. The inclusion of live-singing was simply phenomenal; it’s a film that digs into your core and makes it okay to weep openly in the theater. My only big complaint with Les Mis is ALL THE GODDAMN SINGING. A ridiculous claim, I know, but when you’re sitting there for 157 minutes by yourself and all you want is for the revolutionaries to take six minutes to talk things over before using furniture to defend themselves against canons, it’s not a stretch. Plus, a pee break would’ve been nice.

Who’s Going to Win: Argo

It’s already won a Golden Globe, an AFI award, a Critic’s Choice Award, and a BAFA. The list goes on and on. Given, there are some complaints about historical accuracy, which is going to happen with any film “based on a true story,” but overlooking that, it’s visually stunning, well casted and acted, and made me sit literally on the edge of my seat, holding my breath, eyes wide-opened and ready for the most tense 30 minute ending of my life. I’ve had job interviews that weren’t that intense, but none that were that rewarding. That, and Ben Affleck has an awesome beard. Right there, that’s enough of a reason.

Who I Want to Win: Bradley Cooper

He’s been typecasted as the “glamorous hunky douche” for most of his film career and it’s nice to see break out of that niche into a more relatable character who I would love to go jogging with and later watch the Eagles play. I don’t even like football, THAT’s how much I liked Cooper’s character.

Who Should Win: Hugh Jackman

To put into Mad Men terms: Hugh Jackman is basically the film version of Don Draper. He sings, dances, he plays Wolverine, and puts his focus and drive into every performance. As Jean Valjean, he was the one character I was rooting for that didn’t die, but somehow found the Fountain of Youth and decided to become a baker. That would’ve been amazing.

Who’s Going to Win: Tie: Hugh Jackman/Daniel Day Lewis

This is a tough one to call. Hugh Jackman gave a great performance as Jean Valjean, but Daniel Day Lewis was Abraham Lincoln, who was a real person and one of my favorite presidents. (He’s number three on the list, right behind James K. Polk, but before Bill Clinton.) Jackman gave an astounding performance, but Lewis has quality about his portrayal of the 16th President that’s going to be discussed in film classes at later dates. I’m giving the lead to Lewis, but it’s a slim lead.

Who Should Win: Quvenzhane Wallis

When I was nine, I was learning my multiplication tables. Wallis is off making movies, getting great praise, and Oscar nominations. Granted, I haven’t Beasts of the Southern Wild, but I reiterate: she’s nine and nominated for Best Actress. Why not give it to her? He acceptance speech would be adorable.

Who I Want to Win/Who’s Going to Win: Jennifer Lawrence

This is unfair to the category because I’m openly in love with Jennifer Lawrence and I have no shame in admitting that fact, but Silver Linings Playbook is her best performance. Like Cooper’s character, it’s nothing outlandish or irrational about her character: she’s relatable, she’s honest, heartfelt, and you want to hug her and tell her that everything is going to be fine. I wanna do that regardless, but she deserves it… Yup, no way to back out of that corner.

Who Should Win: Robert De Niro

I originally put Alan Arkin, but I decided that De Niro has a much more earthy and better atmosphere about his character, one that I appreciate more than Arkin’s. He’s a struggling dad just trying to keep his son from going back to the asylum, what’s not to love?

Who I Want to Win/Who’s Going to Win: Christoph Waltz

I love Christoph Waltz and I’m surprised he wasn’t casted as a leading actor because the focus of the film felt more on him than Jamie Fox’s Django. Anyway, there’s an intrinsic quality that makes Waltz the perfect companion as a bounty hunter and overall awesome dentist. He’s light-hearted, yet driven. He’s easy, but fierce with aggression. He just sends shocks through my body. And again, awesome beard, good enough reason for me.

Who I Want to Win: Jacki Weaver

I just wanna see her win. She’s every football and dysfunctional family’s savior. It’s tough to maintain sanity while you’re trying to keep the peace between bickering family members and somehow she does.

Who Should Win: Sally Field

She played the loon that was Mrs. Lincoln. She played it well, too. She played it so well, that it’s alarming she was committed after production had wrapped.

Who’s Going to Win: Anne Hathaway

For the whole 20 minutes she’s on screen, she’s an emotional typhoon of that spirals downward and further into the most basic human instincts. She sells her hair, her teeth, her very body just so little Cosette wouldn’t live in poverty. And she makes you feel every emotion while watching it. It’s beautiful and tear jerking. I can’t adequately describe how she made me feel because honestly, she didn’t, but I did enjoy watching her downfall.

Who I Want to Win: Wreck-It Ralph

Who Should Win: Brave

Who’s Going to Win: Tie: Brave or Frankenweenie

Who I Want to Win: Django Unchained

Who Should Win: Life of Pi

Who’s Going to Win: Lincoln

Who I Want to Win/Who Should Win: Les Miserables

Who’s Going to Win: Lincoln

Who I Want to Win: David O. Russell

Who Should Win: Ang Lee

Who’s Going to Win: Steven Spielberg

  • Music (Original Score)

Who I Want to Win: Argo

Who Should Win: Skyfall

Who’s Going to Win: Lincoln

  • Music (Original Song)

Who I Want to Win/Who Should Win/Who’s Going to Win: Adele, “SkyFall.”

  • Production Design
    • Anna Karenina Sarah Greenwood (Production Design); Katie Spencer (Set Decoration)
    • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dan Hennah (Production Design); Ra Vincent and Simon Bright (Set Decoration)
    • Les Misérables Eve Stewart (Production Design); Anna Lynch-Robinson (Set Decoration)
    • Life of Pi David Gropman (Production Design); Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration)
    • Lincoln Rick Carter (Production Design); Jim Erickson (Set Decoration)

Who I Want to Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Who Should Win: Anna Karenina

Who’s Going to Win: Les Miserables

  • Short Film (Animated)

Who I Want to Win: Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”

Who Should Win/Who’s Going to Win: Paperman

Who Should Win: Life of Pi

Who I Want to Win/ Who’s Going to Win: Marvel’s The Avengers

  • Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Who I Want to Win: Silver Linings Playbook

Who Should Win: Argo

Who’s Going to Win: Lincoln

  • Writing (Original Screenplay)

Who I Want to Win: Moonrise Kingdom

Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Who’s Going to Win: Django Unchained


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About ryantpoole

Ryan T Poole is a former broadcast public relations specialist and morning show producer. His time is spent updating this blog, watching and analyzing TV and movies, reading, listening to music, taking care of his pets, and refocusing his energy into more productive outlets. He likes cold coffee, hot tea, long conversations, and obscure references.

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